Another MasterChef Australia all-star edition? Heaven Sent...
Our favourite competitive cookery TV show ever is back next year with an all-star cast once again, so let's speculate...
If you didn’t know from before, let us tell you now: MasterChef Australia is the best competitive cookery TV show on Earth.
We’ve said it before, we will say it again. Not just supreme amongst its ‘MasterChef’ brethren the world over, it stands leagues beyond *any* other cookery competition. Yes, Bake Off, Barbecue Showdown, My Kitchen Rules, Chopped, the lot. So when Channel 10 this week announced another ‘Back To Win’ season (their own version of what most other shows call ‘All Stars’) we were locked in from the moment it left their lips…
Hello, welcome to this long-read on Chip Paper, from Patrick Hanlon and Russell Alford. Chip Paper is our space on Substack where we share long-form food writing features, deep dives, snappy travel guides and recipes, all punctuated by hand-drawn illustrations. We started as bloggers, built our brand on Instagram and are now freelance food and travel writers plus the restaurant critics for The Sunday Times Ireland. We’re also over at gastrogays.com.
This post is for our fellow MC AU obsessives (many of whom are here already, we know) who have followed the series and have their favourites. For quick context, we watched MC AU for the first time in lockdown 2020 and have binged all 16 seasons since… You might even remember we have a dedicated section of Chip Paper solely for MasterChef Australia content called Under Bench Staples 👀
NOTE: If you haven’t, this post might not be of interest and, even more so, if you DO plan to dive into the MasterChef Australia archive unfortunately we have to warn you THERE ARE MANY SPOILERS in this post – Back To Win will feature only contestants who have not won before, so we don’t want to spoil any of the previous 16 seasons you might want to try on for size to spark the addiction.
Let this be a jumping point: go forth, and catch-up! For the rest of us who are happy to continue and speculate on which fan favourites will be returning to the kitchen, what follows will be our guesses on who is coming back
What We Know & What We Might Already Expect
First, a few ground rules or elements we surmise about the upcoming 17th season of the Best Show Ever™️…
The season will not be broadcast in Australia until April 2025 and has not even begun production yet. Usually we believe production begins about 4-6 weeks before the first episode airs, so they are still in-production while the audience watches the first episodes. The season won’t reach the UK/Ireland until probably August 2025.
We speculate NO previous winners will be involved (Season 14 in 2022 was ‘Fans Vs. Favourites’ and saw 12 newcomers battle 12 fan favourites, including three former winners! We expect as this is returning to the ‘Back To Win’ format it means only those who have not previously won will be involved.
We expect that it will be a slightly shorter season and smaller cast than the first Back To Win (season 12, 2020). That had a cast of 24, however in recent years the cast has been capped between 18 and 22 contestants and the seasons shortened to near or exact 50-episode runs, rather than the 60-65 of the past. We predict it will be a cast of 20 and 50 episodes.
We are going to put ourselves on the line here and say we don’t believe anyone will be given a THIRD chance to compete. We have seen in RuPaul’sDrag Race the opportunity for Queens to enter the werkroom for third and fourth opportunities and it divides the audiences and sometimes sours the season, so we expect this season’s cast will all have only competed once before*, and that includes 2022’s Fans vs. Favourite season (*there was an ‘All Stars’ charity season in 2012 under the original judges and two of the competitors we are speculating in this post did compete in that but neither won, so it’s a spin-off season that doesn’t really count in our eyes).
The current four-strong line-up of judges are confirmed to return: Poh Ling Yeow, Andy Allen, Jean-Christophe Novelli and Sofia Levin. We are surprised about J-C as we didn’t personally think he gelled or solidified his position as a judge in S16 compared to newcomers Poh and Sofia but that’s for another day’s discussion.
Finally, we expect a large cohort from Season 14, and we will explain more on this below.
Following from the above we are speculating on 30 different potential cast members for different reasons, working on the prediction it will be a 20-strong cast, giving us a healthy margin of error that at least ten of the above won’t be included. We expect we won’t be far wrong but then again we’re just avid fans not experts in this… so let’s delve into the thinking behind these 30 below.
Speculation #1: Podium Placers, An Obvious Start
The direct blueprint is the Back To Win season in 2020, so we expect the make-up of the contestants to be similar where just under half the cast had finished #2 or #3 on their original seasons. In fact, for that 2020 season both the #2 and #3 placer on the most recent season (11) competed immediately again, so we can comfortably expect the same from the competitors of 15 and 16.
Season 13: Pete Campbell & Kishwar Chowdhury
Season 14: Daniel Lamble
Season 15: Rhiannon Anderson & Declan Cleary
Season 16: Josh (Peza) Perry (note: as Sav was eliminated then fought to regain her place in the competition to later finish on the podium we don’t speculate she will be back so soon to duke it out, we foresee Harry or Darrsh quicker appearing in Back To Win)
However, because many of the second and third placers of older seasons competed on Back To Win 2020 there is a slightly smaller pool to choose from, so our estimation is that maybe one-third of the cast (6/7 contestants) will be previous podium placers. The six or so above so ones we are near-certain of and therefore the building blocks for the other 25 cast mates we are speculating on.
Then we have to throw a few older seasons’ second and third-placers into the mix too, like Matt Sinclair from Season 8, Audra Morrice from Season 4 (who is now also a judge on MasterChef Singapore so we need that gag-factor of a judge returning as a competitor) and Georgia Barnes from Season 7 who was a total underdog and a shock runner-up.
Note: We would have picked Michael Weldon from Season 3 but he competed in Fans vs. Favourites so in our estimation that rules him out and also would have included Season 10 runner-up Ben Borsht but he returned to work in construction after his season and doesn’t seem to cook much these days. There are also a number of other potential third-placers from seasons 2, 3, 7 and 9…
Speculation #2: Season 14 Cohort
Season 14 (2022) was a break with tradition in the Fans Vs. Favourites format, which was not the most positively-received by the audience. It pitted former contestants (including three winners), some of which had gone pro chef and stratospheric in their celebrity, against mere home cook mortals. It was a totally uneven playing field and the 12 eager beaver home cooks were dealt a very difficult hand to keep up and compete. To make up for this we expect many of that season’s newbies will be back for a proper red hot go, especially the ones who got near to the end, like Daniel Lamble (#3) and (#4) as well as Montana Hughes (#9), (#13) and Ali Stoner (#15), but the justification for the latter three will be even more clear later in this list…
Speculation #3: Fourth and Fifth-Placers
Everyone tends to remember the top three of a season but what about the ones who juuust missed out on a podium finish (and a cash prize!)? Sometimes these are easy to forget even though they often appeared in nearly 50 episodes! Naturally as so many podium-placers competed back in 2020 (and the final was a showdown between the same season’s #2 and #3 as it happens!), thoughts then turn to the fourth and fifth-placers, of which we expect quite a few to be in the mix, the likes of:
Season 16: Harry Butterfield
Season 15:
Season 14:
And of course a couple of older season faves in the mix too, like Tamara Graffen (Season 9) Sara Oteri (Season 7), Jamie Fleming (Season 6), and Justine Schofield from Season 1!
Speculation #4: Massive Content Creators
Who can count to 2.5 Million? These ten can, and that’s on collective Instagram audience numbers alone…
Dan Dumbrell (84K)
Pete Campbell (114K)
Conor Curran (406K)
Ali Stoner (244K)
Justine Schofield (190K)
Matt Sinclair (151K)
Marion Grasby (845K)
Kishwar Cowdhury (113K)
Montana Hughes (169K)
Dan Churchill (214K)
Depinder Chhibber (129k)
Add TikTok into the mix and you have 1.8 Million more – Dan Churchill alone commands 1.3M of that audience on there. Add YouTube into the mix and Marion Grasby trounces the lot with nearly 2 Million followers…
Of course MC AU won’t say no to harnessing the audiences of those who are among the most-followed contestants. It makes sense as it’s a sign of popularity but also gives greater potential exposure to the show by inviting back these social media titans. It would be a real coup to get both Dan Churchill and Marion Grasby within the cast, though we have doubts either would agree as their careers don’t need a MasterChef trophy, clearly. Dan is the loveable hunk, akin to Hayden Quinn in the last Back To Win, who is cracking America and combines fitness and performance-based eating/recipes while Marion is the social media powerhouse success story of the entire franchise. Though she only finished ninth in her original season she has become the digital leader AND she did compete in the ‘All-Stars’ season in 2012 so there is potential there. Combined, they would be a gag—worthy inclusion and immediate frontrunners.
Speculation #5: Middle of the Pack
Because of the nature of the beast, sometimes fan favourites and the most talented cooks don’t quite make it to the final rounds. The changeable nature of the challenges throughout the season often means one small slip-up and your fave is gone, so Back To Win is not necessarily about the highest placers in a collective of seasons, really, it’s about the talented personalities who captured the hearts of the viewers. Plus, you do have to take into account post-elimination careers and success stories too….
In both Back To Win 2020 and Fans Vs. Favourites in 2022 no one who finished below #15 in their original season was invited back so for most of our predictions we are looking at top ten finish and above. However, we do have some exceptions and other examples of frontrunners or iconic contestants who went home earlier than expected, like:
Depinder Chhibber (#8)
Dan Dumbrell (#15)
Samira Demirova (#15)
Snezana Calic (#15)
(#13)
Marion Grasby (#9)
Billy Law (#7)
Robbie Cooper (#13)
Derek Lau (#8)
Conor Curran (#19)
We also include Ali Stoner (#15) and Montana Hughes (#9) from S14 here too
Speculation #6: One From Every Damn Season
In Back To Win 2020 at least one competitor from every season thus far (1-11) competed. In fact, aside from Harry Foster from Season 8 and Lynton Tapp from Season 5, every season had at least two competitors. We expect Back To Win 2025 will need to have a showing from every single season 1-16 (except 12, the other Back To Win season). So, that might look something like:
S1: Justine
S2: Marion
S3: Billy
S4: Audra
S5: Dan
S6: Jamie
S7: Georgia & Sara
S8: Matt
S9: Tamara
S10: Samira
S11: Derek
S13: Pete, Kishwar, Conor, Depinder, Dan, maybe even Elise in there too?
S14: (the five as per Speculation #2 above)
S15: Rhiannon, Declan, Theo, Robbie
S16: Peza, Darrsh, Harry, Snežana
Obviously that’s 30 competitors listed and room for probably only 20, so as explained previously it’s a margin of error. Maybe from S13-S16 there will be one or two fewer than we predict.
Final Conclusions/Predictions
Declan, Rhiannon & Peza, a trio of podium placers from the most recent two seasons for sure. For Declan and Peza there is that loveable rogue quality and there would be outcry if neither return. Potentially Cath in place of Rhiannon for the same reason…
Daniel & Keyma from Season 14 for sure, the top-placers of the hard-done-by Fans Vs. Favourite season.
Ali Stoner & Montana Hughes from 14 also as they are social media recipe powerhouses and both crop up across several categories.
We have a feeling a big name has to be in the mix, at least one. Is that Marion, Dan Churchill or Audra? Maybe even
?!There must be a couple of old schoolers, so expect a peppering of personalities from seasons 1-10. For example, we thought when watching Audra in S4, Jamie in S6, Sara in S7 and Tamara in S9 that they were all destined to win because of their techniques, flavours and personalities, however none of them did, none making it to the final. Is this their moment?
There HAS to be a Season 1 competitor. It feels right, but runner-up Poh is now a judge so is not in contention, winner Julie Goodwin competed in Fans vs. Favourites so also not in contention and Chris Badenoch, who came third in Season 1, competed in Back To Win 2020. Therefore, naturally the fourth-placer is the next likeliest – Justine Schofield has a HUGE social following and lots of TV work behind her, including a stint in I’m A Celebrity a few years ago. She did technically compete in the charity ‘All-Stars’ before too…
Really, though, we think that seasons 13-16 will make-up most of the cast.
Finally, representation matters and in a highly curated season like Back To Win there is a need to showcase diversity of background (Indigenous/First Nation, Indian subcontinent, South and Southeast Asia, European-born/heritage, South America) and cuisine speciality so that will always impact the ensemble cast created.
If you have gotten this far, congratulations, we’ve just dumped a mini thesis on you –– and the kicker is it might be ENTIRELY wrong, but it’s what we’re sticking with and think we set out some informed guesses across different criteria and categories. What do YOU think, though? Let us know in a comment and let’s continue to speculation and discourse!